Published October 2, 2026 in Market Update

Primary market closings rose even with rates back above 7%

Hey man, here is the one thing that changes what you should do right now. Rates are back above 7%. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed at 7.28% on October 1, 2026. That is the first time since January 2025, according to Realtor.com. A lot of people assume that shuts the market down. It did not.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 3,527 closings across the primary market in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is up 9.3% from the same three months a year before. Demand did not disappear. It got more selective. And that selectivity plays out differently from one ZIP code to the next.

The market-wide picture

Pending sales were up 5.1% year over year too. That tells us buyers were still moving, not sitting on the sideline. The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales nationally were up 1.6% year to date through the first eight months of 2026, even with rates climbing. This market outpaced that.

One honest note: Realtor.com reported that the number of homes under contract nationally was down 4.1% year over year as of late September. Rates surging nearly 40 basis points in September, according to Realtor.com, will likely show up in the next round of numbers. We are not there yet in this data.

Where it moved fastest

Not every ZIP code felt the same thing. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows some real separation. Grapevine (76051) had 54.9% of homes go under contract within two weeks of listing. That is the highest quick-contract rate in this market. The median sale price there rose 10.2% year over year to $620,000, and homes sold at 99.2% of list on average. Fewer homes were available, down 3.9%, which kept the pressure on.

Southlake / Carroll (76092) was right behind Grapevine. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows 48.1% of homes there went under contract within two weeks, up 15.2 points from a year ago. That is a big jump. The median price dipped 2.9% to $1,370,000, but more homes sold above list, up 8.2 points to 23.5%. Buyers who want Carroll ISD are still stretching to get inside that boundary.

Where it moved slowest

ZIP 76240 (Gainesville) sat at the other end. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 6.4 months of supply there, the most of any ZIP in this market. Median days on market were 63, though that is actually 27 days shorter than a year ago. Homes sold at 94.5% of list on average. Sales volume rose 15.5% year over year, so things are moving, just on a longer timeline. Gainesville buyers tend to already live or work nearby. This is not a typical Metroplex commuter move.

ZIP 76207 (Denton area) also had more supply than the rest of the market. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows 5.6 months of supply there, up 0.2 months from a year ago. Homes for sale rose 25.4% year over year. Days on market climbed 9 days. Only 5.1% of homes sold above list, down 13.1 points from a year ago. That is a meaningful shift toward buyers.

The ZIP codes in the middle

Keller (76248) had a median sale price of $652,500, down 1.1% from a year ago. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows 180 homes sold there, up just 0.6%. Days on market were 26, two days longer than a year ago. Supply crept up to 2.8 months. It is still a tight market, but not quite as sharp as it was.

ZIP 76244, which covers parts of North Fort Worth including communities like Villages of Woodland Springs and Heritage, told a different story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 264 homes sold, up 7.3%. Homes for sale dropped 10.4%. Pending sales jumped 13.2%. Supply fell to 2.5 months. Price held up too, up 0.5% to $397,000. That is a solid result for a master-planned community market.

ZIP 76179, which covers more of North Fort Worth, had the biggest volume gain in the market. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 451 homes sold, up 22.9%. Pending sales rose 15.6%. But median price slipped 3.5% to $330,000, and supply stayed at 3.6 months. More homes sold, but sellers had to price for it.

ZIP 76052 (Haslet area, Northwest ISD) had the most dramatic volume swing. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 383 homes sold, up 49%. Pending sales rose 35%. But median price fell 7.9% to $399,990, and days on market were 58. A lot of that volume is new construction getting absorbed. The standard two-story production home out there is monotonous, and buyers know it. Price is doing the work.

Prices: where they rose, where they slipped

Colleyville (76034) was a standout on price growth. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows the median rose 4.1% to $1,033,000. Homes for sale fell 33.8%. That is a big inventory drop, and it held prices up. ZIP 76182 (North Richland Hills) rose 11.8% to $448,750, with 32.1% of homes selling above list. ZIP 76039 (Euless) rose 14.3% to $415,000, with sales volume up 39.7%.

On the other side, ZIP 76117 (Haltom City area) saw the median fall 5.7% to $250,000. But more than 1 in 4 homes there sold above list, up 12.3 points. And days on market dropped 15 days. Lower price, faster pace. That is a different kind of demand.

What rates mean for your ZIP

Freddie Mac also put the 15-year fixed rate at 6.60% on October 1, 2026. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that U.S. house prices rose 2.1% year over year between the second quarters of 2025 and 2026. Quarter over quarter, prices rose 0.3%. Nationally, prices are still moving up, just slowly.

The National Association of Realtors put the national months of supply at 4.9 months, the highest in over ten years. This primary market is running well below that in most ZIPs. That gap matters. It means local conditions here are tighter than the national headline suggests.